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Misallocation of Human Capital: The Austrian Perspective
Skala, Jakub ; Lebovič, Michal (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
Higher education is often considered as one of the safest and most profitable investments in human capital. There are, however, signals that this sector has been experiencing unsustainable economic boom in the United States. This study examines the ability of Austrian Business Cycle Theory to explain the possibility of such boom, i.e. to explain the potential systematic errors in the allocation of human capital. We find that respective allocation is driven by the similar market forces as the allocation of physical capital and hence, that it may fall victim to the same, or similar false market signals, thus creating the cycle of boom and bust. Credit expansion in the sector of student loans can be the trigger then. Furthermore, we study the actual development in this sector and find that empirical evidence provides many reasons to believe that there has actually been unsustainable boom i.e. an economic bubble in the sector of post-secondary education in the United States.
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Business cycle and monetary policy: a modern Austrian approach
Komrska, Martin ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee) ; Kadrmas, Tomáš (referee)
This dissertation presents the results of research focused on the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The main part of the thesis is an econometrical test of five predictions based on ABCT. I used data on the US economy for period 1967 - 2016, which is the longest time period covered in the Austrian empirical literature so far. Since one of the most important variables for ABCT is so called interest rate gap (the difference between market interest rate and natural interest rate), I use three alternative models of this variable. The results of my empirical tests predominantly confirm theoretical predictions of ABCT. It can be shown that the interest rate gap influenced the relative structure of economic activity and resource allocation in a way predicted by ABCT. I also investigate whether the interest rate gap does have a significant impact on stock market valuations (in terms of aggregate level or relative structure), although the results are mostly statistically insignificant. In addition I also described several possible new distortions which may emerge due to unconventional monetary policy. I argue that these distortions should be of primary interest for researchers engaged in the Austrian research program. I devoted special attention to the specifics of monetary policy regime in Japan, where the Bank of Japan regularly intervenes on the stock market. Another theoretical contribution can be found in the second chapter where I respond to the White's (1999) claim that Hayek implicitly repudiated his own version of ABCT in later part of his career, when proposing free competition in money production. I attempt to show that White's conclusion stems from an inadequate interpretation of Hayek's writings. Finally I provide an alternative interpretation of Hayek's work that reveals the compatibility of his early and late theoretical contributions.
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An empirical approach to understanding Japan's secular stagnation through Austrian business cycle theory
Kessl, Daniel ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Moravcová, Hana (referee)
The present thesis estimates an econometric model based on the Austrian business cycle theory on data from the 'lost decades' in Japan - a period of economic stagnation from 1990 to 2010. The results show a negative significant effect both of the ratio of consumption to investment expenditure and the term spread on aggregate economic activity, a result consistent with the expectations and with other empirical studies done on the subject. Overall, the estimation confirms the hypothesis of Austrian business cycle theory that monetary shocks explain business cycles. JEL Classifications B25, C22, C52, E32, E43 Keywords Austrian business cycle theory, Japan, linear regression, time series models, business cycles Author's e-mail 80022787@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail pavel_ryska@volny.cz
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Misallocation of Human Capital: The Austrian Perspective
Skala, Jakub ; Lebovič, Michal (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
Higher education is often considered as one of the safest and most profitable investments in human capital. There are, however, signals that this sector has been experiencing unsustainable economic boom in the United States. This study examines the ability of Austrian Business Cycle Theory to explain the possibility of such boom, i.e. to explain the potential systematic errors in the allocation of human capital. We find that respective allocation is driven by the similar market forces as the allocation of physical capital and hence, that it may fall victim to the same, or similar false market signals, thus creating the cycle of boom and bust. Credit expansion in the sector of student loans can be the trigger then. Furthermore, we study the actual development in this sector and find that empirical evidence provides many reasons to believe that there has actually been unsustainable boom i.e. an economic bubble in the sector of post-secondary education in the United States.
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Monetary Expansion and Economic Crises: An Austrian Perspective
Jára, Karel ; Průša, Jan (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The study of economic crises has been a major topic of interest in economics since at least the Great Depression and it has come to the fore once again after the latest crisis of late 2000s. It has also been one of the key themes for the Austrian school of economics in the form of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), which puts emphasis on monetary factors influencing capital structure of the economy. In this thesis we provide a comprehensive exposition of the distinctive points of Austrian approach to the study of markets, the ABCT's propositions and conclusions and also the most important criticism of the theory and replies to it. The theoretical part is accompanied by an empirical illustration on the economy of the United States of America in the period starting at the end of the latest crisis. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Austrian Business Cycle Theory and Its Application to Modern Economic Crises
Skala, Jakub ; Janotík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Business cycle that appeared in the US between 2002 and 2009 caused serious economic turmoil which affects the economic development until today. This paper examines the ability of Austrian business cycle theory to explain the cycle. The theory claims that disequilibrium on market for loanable funds appears after monetary expansion. As a result, interest rate does not correspond to individuals' preferences, which induces distortion in relative prices, capital misallocation, and unsuitable structure of production. The inevitable market correction then incurs economic recession. First, the paper describes the methodological origins of the theory and then summarizes its main principles. The description of the US economy during the examined period follows. At the end, the theory is confronted with reality. Although there are some minor differences between predictions of the theory and the actual development of the US economy, it can be concluded that Austrian business cycle theory can help us explain the recent business cycle.
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Příspěvek k rakouské teorii hospodářského cyklu: Nejistota a cenová očekávání
Frömmel, Tomáš ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.
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Selected aspects of the latest financial crisis
Vlček, Tomáš ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
The thesis is dedicated to clarifying the origins and main causes of the economic crisis. In the first part I ilustrate the connection between the monetary policies of central banks and the changes in structure of the production and investments with the help of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. These theoretical assumptions are confronted with the empirical findings from USA throughout the 20th century. The second part discusses other factors leading to the crises, mainly focusing on the 2009 economic crises and various free market and state controlled factors. The thesis discusses these factors from the point of view of theoretical and empirical knowledge of economic science.
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Bitcoins: Inception of New Era in Monetary Policy?
Vít, Ondřej ; Doležal, Ondřej (advisor) ; Sunega, Petr (referee)
This work presents an economic analysis of virtual currency and a system of payment known as Bitcoin. From many goals of this work, the main is to answer a question, whether the Bitcoins are to cause revolution at financial markets. To solve this I applied theoretical knowledge of Austrian school on the Bitcoin currency. Given this facts it has turned out, that the nature of Bitcoin truly is revolutionary. However, it would be wrong to assume, that the Bitcoins are to actually spark significant changes in current monetary system. For a better understanding of all circumstances, the development of an exchange and the evolution of money was involved in this work. From an economical perspective, it is obvious, that the Bitcoins certainly are a new kind of currency that flows beside money but also cannot replace it. It is the specificity of the system what creates barriers preventing Bitcoins from becoming more widespread and used more often. The benefits of this thesis lie in a complex economic analysis of Bitcoin currency and a prediction of its future development.
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Business Cycle from The Viewpoint of Monetary and Credit Variables
Metrah, Samy ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Koderová, Jitka (referee)
The master's thesis critically analyses the works of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek concering the explanation of business cycles based on monetary determinants. The analysis is primarily based on J. M. Keynes's Treatise on Money (1930) and Prices and Production (1935) author of which is F. A. Hayek. The thesis, on one hand, refutes the main explanation of the cause of business cycles of the Austrian business cycle theory and, on the other hand, it argues the imcompatibility of the main analytical tool of Treatise with the theory of innovation by J. A. Schumpeter.
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